Reid Kerr's NFL odds: Was Week 4 just a one-off of upsets, or is it time to rethink things?

Published on Wednesday, 4 October 2017 21:01 - Written by Reid Kerr, Sports Columnist

Week 4 in the NFL was a rough one with the Cowboys, Patriots and Falcons all losing in stunners. Was it a week of upsets? Or was it just a week where teams that were better than we thought showed up?

I think it’s a little bit of both. And before you ask if that changes the playoff picks, I’ll remind you what they say on commercials where they ask you to invest your 401(k) money in things like offshore oil leases and commemorative Elvis plates.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

I’m not quite ready to give up on my preseason predictions yet, but I’ll admit seeing bad teams beat presumably good ones shakes things up. I’m not prepared to say the Super Bowl will be Lions and Bills but maybe after next week, I’ll be watching a little closer.

I hate to harp on Dallas, but the worst loss of the week has to be the Cowboys dropping one to the Rams, 35-30. Dallas had a lead late. They were at home. And they were playing the Rams. You shouldn’t lose a game when any one of these factors is present, much less all three. Still, there the Cowboys were, making Jared Goff look like the best LA Rams quarterback since Warren Beatty in “Heaven Can Wait.”

The best win of Week 4? Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Of course, no one also fades at midseason and misses the playoffs every single year that begins with the number “two” like Buffalo either, so we’ll have to see if anything really comes of their 23-17 win over the Falcons. But for this week there’s finally hope in Buffalo again.

Last Sunday wasn’t exactly a day to write home about, unless your mom is a bookie and you’re trying to cheer her up. Admittedly, I was awful. I counted on wins from the Cowboys and Patriots and worse yet, I totally forgot that the Miami Dolphins aren’t so much a team anymore as they are a loose affiliation of slow-moving parts. I went 2-4 straight up, and an astounding 1-5 against the spread. I’m now 13-15 straight up, and 9-19 against the odds.

Let’s get Week 5 started with a win. Remember, these are for the purposes of discussion only, and based on my track record, feel free to pick against me. As always, no wagering.

New England (-5.5) at Tampa Bay: CBS has this game, so that means Tony Romo will be doing the broadcast. I love how Romo has approached the gig so far, but if he can really predict what’s going to happen on NFL plays, why didn’t he know when to duck?

Pick: Patriots to win and cover, winning by six or more. And if they don’t, then the era is over.

I’ll be back Saturday with the usual assortment of incorrect predictions. Until then, donate money, time or blood. After the last two weeks, there are many people out there in desperate need. Do what you can, and good luck, everybody.

Reid Kerr talks a lot, as his wife always reminds him. Reid’s second book, “I Hate It Here: A Love Story,” is out now on Amazon.com. You can always tweet questions, comments, and angry messages to him at @reidaboutit.